A resilient foreign policy is smart foreign policy

Comment: Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s visit to Washington DC earlier this month, where he met with the US President and attended the NATO Summit, served as a timely reminder of the central role the US continues to play as a convenor of democratic countries and a security broker with the military assets needed to maintain a balance of power in our region. 
We might not like everything the US does and there might be times when we struggle with its leadership, but its significance as a global power is unquestionable and New Zealand must exercise smart and resilient foreign policy to continue to engage. 
For many smaller democratic countries including New Zealand it has been their relationship with the US that has afforded them some assurance that they’re not alone should their resources, sovereignty and territorial integrity be challenged by an unfriendly power. Look no further than Ukraine.
The Prime Minister’s visit to the US comes off the back of Chinese Premier Li Qiang’s visit to New Zealand, which similarly highlighted the importance of China as a trading partner and influential power. This visit saw the announcement of non-reciprocal visa free travel to China, the launch of FTA upgrade negotiations for trade in services, as well as several sectoral agreements for agriculture. 
New Zealand’s US and China relationships come with significant benefits to us, but they are also increasingly complicated partnerships that require skill to navigate. 
Very rarely can New Zealand assert its interests and get major powers to listen. Invariably we are skilful diplomats because we’re good coalition builders, serve as the architects of regional trade agreements, hold the pen whenever possible when regional rules are being drafted, and stay in good company. Our diplomacy is never an exercise in leveraging military or economic might, but in leveraging smart people-power. 
The Asia New Zealand Foundation’s latest Perceptions of Asia survey shows that New Zealanders are consistently cautious of major powers, and especially those with nuclear weapons. In our latest results, only 38 percent of New Zealanders trust the US to act responsibly in the world, while only 12 percent trust China. This compares to 74 percent who trust our neighbour and ally, Australia. 
Instinctively we know we need these major power partnerships, but equally New Zealanders do not want to feel beholden to them. The fear of losing our independence runs through the foundation’s research results. It is also something that is discussed regularly at the experts’ dialogues we hold with partners across Asia – because other small and medium-sized powers in Asia are worried about exactly the same thing. 
In Malaysia, it is clear that the war in Gaza has been hugely damaging to the reputation of the US and has paved the way for stronger Malaysia-China relations. Similarly, the latest South East Asia survey by the Singapore-based ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute shows China edging past the US as a partner of choice with a sharp drop in US popularity tied (in part) to its military support for Netanyahu’s Israel. The percentage preferring the US has dropped from 61.1 percent to under 50 percent. 
China’s skirmishes with the Philippines in the South China Sea as well as its relations with Russia, Iran and North Korea have seen it threaten regional stability. China and the Philippines agreed this month to an arrangement to improve their handling of maritime disputes to lessen the risk of escalating military hostility, but we’re a long way from stable or high-trust relations. 
We are also in a record year for elections, heightening feelings of uncertainty and the potential for tumult – as seen just this month in the US. 
In the wake of new governments, any relationship or policy is subject to change or develop in ways that don’t always sit comfortably with New Zealand. Even with those that rarely change, such as Xi Jinping’s Chinese Communist Party, policy announcements can be unsettling. 
For many years, New Zealand has been able to navigate these changes because foreign relations and trade policy have largely enjoyed bipartisan support. This, too, cannot be taken for granted. Our region is becoming more polarised, with personality politics, fake news, foreign interference, inequality, and other divisions having a divisive effect on how we see the world. 
It would be easy for New Zealand to lose its long-held and hard-won bipartisan support for its broad-based foreign policy. It’s a policy that requires social license, and if New Zealanders are sensing trouble, then that license can be revoked. Our instincts as an island nation will be to batten the hatches and stick with our tribe. We saw this happen to the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal and during the Covid-19 pandemic. 
There are also plenty of examples globally of hypocrisy and double standards in foreign policy that can leave voters, bilateral partners and allies disillusioned and wondering who and what they’re supporting. 
In these unsettled times, it pays dividends to build resiliency into our policies. For New Zealand’s foreign relations and trade, this means having a range of partnerships that have been developed in areas of shared interest or “like mindedness” over time. What we want is choices and options, and the resources available to pursue them. 
The contribution of my organisation has been to invest in building New Zealanders’ Asia capability, and forging senior contacts across the region who we can call on in times of need. It is an ancillary service to government that’s nice to have in peacetime and critical when relationships come under strain. 
For New Zealand to thrive in a complex world, we must foster a range of strong partnerships to give ourselves options, leveraging the benefits each offers, and investing where our interests and values are at stake. The US and China are significant, but let’s not forget about other important friends we have in the region such as Japan, Singapore, Korea, India, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and many others.